WORLD · Settled
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 9?
The answer: YES
The panel of 18 models averaged 36% YES; 7 of 18 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 46%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Israel did launch military action on 9 Sept; panel underweighted the event
The question resolved YES. The panel mean sat at 0.36 while the crowd price was 0.46, and 7 of 18 models called it. Gemini 2.5 Pro and Perplexity Sonar Pro made the strongest YES calls, with Gemini 2.5 Pro the highest at 75%. Many models gave very low probabilities, including Qwen3 235B at 2%, producing large errors for those agents.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-10 21:45:01.
- Panel: 18 models, mean_p_yes 0.36, median_p_yes 0.29, 7 called it.
- Crowd: frozen Polymarket price p_yes 0.46, called_it false.
- Highest panel forecast: Gemini 2.5 Pro at 75% (brier 0.063).
- Lowest panel forecast: Qwen3 235B at 2% (brier 0.96).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro75%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro73%
- Kimi K272%
- Perplexity Sonar69%
- GPT-5 + web search66%
- Claude Sonnet 4.558%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search52%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search48%
- GPT-540%
- Mistral Large18%
- DeepSeek R118%
- Grok 4.516%
- Claude Opus 4.112%
- Llama 4 Maverick12%
- GPT-5 Mini12%
- DeepSeek V37%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash4%
- Qwen3 235B2%