CULTURE · Settled
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 17% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 44%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel strongly favoured NO, mean 17% vs crowd Polymarket 44%; best call at 2%
The question resolved NO. The panel mean was 17%, median 16%, both well below the crowd Polymarket price of 44%. All 20 panel models called the outcome correctly, with Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search the best call at 2% (near-zero Brier). The panel contained higher-probability outliers, the largest being Llama 4 Maverick and Mistral Large at 45%, which were the biggest misses.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-09-22 06:30:01.
- Panel mean 17%, median 16%, all 20 models called the outcome correctly.
- Crowd was Polymarket price 44%, the panel sat well below that.
- Best single model: Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search, chance of YES 2%, Brier 0.
- Worst single model: Llama 4 Maverick (and Mistral Large), chance of YES 45%, Brier 0.203.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Llama 4 Maverick45%
- Mistral Large45%
- Perplexity Sonar43%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro27%
- Claude Opus 4.122%
- Qwen3 235B22%
- Kimi K222%
- DeepSeek V320%
- Grok 4.518%
- GPT-5 + web search17%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search15%
- GPT-5 Mini13%
- Claude Sonnet 4.512%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro6%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search6%
- DeepSeek R14%
- GPT-54%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash3%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search3%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search2%