CULTURE · Settled
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 13% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 16%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel ranked Trump insulting Warsh unlikely; panel mean 13% versus Polymarket 16%
The market (Polymarket price frozen at 16%) and the panel both forecast NO, and the outcome was NO. The panel mean was 13%, median 9%, with all 20 models calling it. GPT-5 made the strongest NO call at 2% and scored best. Perplexity Sonar was the highest YES at 42% and therefore the largest miss. The panel showed substantial spread: some models gave near-zero chances while one gave 42%, but no models recorded supporting theses or drivers in the decision records.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-10-01 08:30:01.
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 16% YES.
- Panel mean chance of YES 13%, median 9%, all 20 models called NO.
- Best call: GPT-5 at 2% YES, near-zero Brier.
- Worst call: Perplexity Sonar at 42% YES, Brier 0.176.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Perplexity Sonar42%
- GPT-5 + web search27%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search25%
- DeepSeek V325%
- Mistral Large18%
- GPT-5 Mini18%
- Qwen3 235B12%
- Llama 4 Maverick12%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search11%
- Grok 4.59%
- DeepSeek R18%
- Kimi K28%
- Claude Opus 4.18%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search8%
- Claude Sonnet 4.58%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro8%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search7%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash3%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro3%
- GPT-52%