Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Panel and Polymarket sided NO; panel mean 15%, crowd 12%, wide model spread

The question resolved NO on 19 September 2026. The frozen Polymarket price, the crowd, was 12%. The panel of 18 models averaged 15% (median 12%), with forecasts from 2% to 35%. The best calls were the models that gave 2%, they scored near-zero Brier but recorded no thesis or drivers; the high forecasts had the largest misses and also recorded no supporting notes.

• Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-09-19 14:00:01.
• Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 12%.
• Panel: 18 models, mean chance of YES 15%, median 12%, all called NO.
• Model range: lowest 2%, highest 35%, spread 33 points indicating disagreement.
• Best scores: three models at 2% produced near-zero Brier; worst scores: two models at 35%.