WORLD · Settled
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 37% YES; 5 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 32%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
US, Iran diplomatic meeting occurred, panel slightly more bullish than Polymarket
The question resolved YES. The crowd (Polymarket price frozen when asked) was 32%. The panel mean was 37%, median 33%, with 5 of 20 models calling it. The best calls were the high-probability forecasts led by DeepSeek R1, the misses were the low-probability forecasts such as Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-22 21:30:07.
- Crowd Polymarket price: 32%.
- Panel mean: 37%, median: 33%, 5 of 20 models called it.
- Forecast range: lowest 8%, highest 70%, disagreement present.
- Top three probabilities: DeepSeek R1 70%, Mistral Large 68%, Gemini 2.5 Flash 65%.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek R170%
- Mistral Large68%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash65%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro59%
- Perplexity Sonar54%
- Claude Opus 4.142%
- Llama 4 Maverick42%
- Claude Sonnet 4.538%
- DeepSeek V335%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro34%
- Grok 4.532%
- Qwen3 235B30%
- Kimi K228%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search25%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search22%
- GPT-5 + web search22%
- GPT-522%
- GPT-5 Mini18%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search18%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search8%