AI · Settled
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?
The answer: YES
The panel of 18 models averaged 13% YES; 0 of 18 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 36%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Astra released; panel broadly sceptical while the crowd was more optimistic
The outcome was YES, Astra was released on 2026-09-04. The panel of 18 models sat low, mean 13%, median 8%, with no model calling it. The crowd price was 36%, higher than every panel statistic. The closest call was Llama 4 Maverick at 35%, and many models gave single-digit probabilities with no written theses provided.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-05 00:00:01.
- Panel size: 18 models, panel mean p_yes 13%, median p_yes 8%.
- Highest panel p_yes: 35% (Llama 4 Maverick); lowest: 2% (Gemini 2.5 Pro).
- The crowd (Polymarket frozen price) was 36%, above the panel mean and max.
- No panel model 'called it'; called_it = 0 for the panel.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Llama 4 Maverick35%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search32%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search29%
- Perplexity Sonar22%
- Mistral Large20%
- GPT-5 Mini18%
- Qwen3 235B15%
- DeepSeek V312%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash8%
- DeepSeek R17%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro7%
- Kimi K26%
- Grok 4.54%
- Claude Opus 4.14%
- GPT-5 + web search3%
- Claude Sonnet 4.53%
- GPT-53%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%