SCIENCE · Settled
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 3?
The answer: YES
The panel of 14 models averaged 13% YES; 0 of 14 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 59%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Crowd 0.59 beats panel mean 0.13 as Wellington hit 17°C and the panel largely said no
The event resolved YES. The crowd price was 0.59, while the panel mean p_yes was 0.13 and no panel model called it. Perplexity Sonar was the closest with p_yes 0.46, the rest ranged from 0.05 to 0.46. The panel missed broadly by assigning low probabilities; the crowd's frozen price matched the outcome.
- Outcome: YES, highest temperature in Wellington was 17°C on 2026-09-03.
- The crowd (Polymarket price frozen) p_yes was 0.59 and it called it.
- Panel mean_p_yes was 0.13, with 0 models calling it.
- Perplexity Sonar had the highest panel p_yes at 0.46.
- Lowest panel p_yes were 0.05 from Gemini 2.5 Pro and Llama 4 Maverick.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Perplexity Sonar46%
- Mistral Large20%
- Qwen3 235B14%
- GPT-5 Mini12%
- Claude Opus 4.112%
- Grok 4.512%
- DeepSeek V312%
- Kimi K212%
- GPT-58%
- Claude Sonnet 4.58%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash7%
- DeepSeek R17%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro5%
- Llama 4 Maverick5%