WORLD · Settled
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 18% YES; 0 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 32%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Flavio Bolsonaro won, the crowd priced YES at 32% and the panel averaged 18%
The outcome was YES. The crowd, a Polymarket price frozen when the question was asked, was 32%. The panel of 20 models averaged 18% (median 17%) and none called it. Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search was the boldest model at 43%, the lowest models were at 2%. High and low forecasts had no recorded theses or sources in the panel records.
- Outcome: YES.
- Crowd (Polymarket price) was 32%.
- Panel mean was 18%, median 17%, across 20 models; called_it 0.
- Highest model probability 43% (Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search), lowest 2% (Gemini 2.5 Pro and GPT-5).
- Panel records contain no theses, drivers or sources for the forecasts.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search43%
- Perplexity Sonar38%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro35%
- GPT-5 + web search33%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search30%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search28%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search26%
- DeepSeek R124%
- Qwen3 235B22%
- Mistral Large18%
- DeepSeek V315%
- Grok 4.59%
- Kimi K28%
- Claude Opus 4.18%
- GPT-5 Mini8%
- Llama 4 Maverick7%
- Claude Sonnet 4.53%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash3%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%
- GPT-52%