WORLD · Settled
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 61% YES; 4 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 76%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Lula lost the first round; panel leaned YES but a few models correctly favoured NO
The outcome was NO. The panel mean was 0.61 and median 0.62, versus the crowd Polymarket price 0.76. Claude Sonnet 4.5 made the best call with 28% YES and Brier 0.078, correctly favouring NO. Models that missed most strongly placed up to 80% YES; the records contain no theses or drivers explaining those high forecasts.
- Outcome: NO.
- Panel mean 61% YES, median 62% YES; 4 models called it.
- Crowd was a Polymarket price frozen at 76% YES.
- Best call: Claude Sonnet 4.5 at 28% YES, Brier 0.078.
- Worst call: Llama 4 Maverick + web search at 80% YES, Brier 0.64.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search80%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search76%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search76%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash75%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro74%
- GPT-5 + web search73%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search73%
- Perplexity Sonar69%
- GPT-5 Mini63%
- Qwen3 235B62%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro62%
- GPT-559%
- Kimi K258%
- Llama 4 Maverick55%
- Mistral Large55%
- DeepSeek R152%
- Grok 4.548%
- DeepSeek V345%
- Claude Opus 4.142%
- Claude Sonnet 4.528%