Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on August 31?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Seoul exceeded 19°C on 31 Aug, panel largely predicted that and beat the unfrozen crowd price

The outcome was NO, the highest temperature exceeded 19°C. The panel's mean probability for YES was 6%, the crowd's frozen price was 0% (the crowd called it). All 13 models called the outcome correctly by assigning low YES probabilities; Claude Sonnet 4.5, DeepSeek R1 and Gemini 2.5 Pro made the strongest correct calls at 2%. The clearest misses were Mistral Large (15%) and Kimi K2 (22%), which placed the highest weight on YES.

• Outcome NO: highest temperature in Seoul exceeded 19°C on 31 Aug.
• Panel mean_p_yes was 6%, median 4%, range 2% to 22%.
• The crowd price was 0% and it called the outcome correctly.
• All 13 models called the outcome correctly with low YES probabilities.
• Highest individual YES probabilities were Mistral Large 15% and Kimi K2 22%.