CULTURE · Settled
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?
The answer: NO
The panel of 13 models averaged 14% YES; 13 of 13 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 69%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel unanimously rejected the crowd: GTA VI Extended Look did not fall below 20 million week‑1 views
The outcome was NO. The crowd priced YES at 69%, while the panel mean was 14% and all 13 models called NO. Gemini 2.5 Pro made the strongest NO call at p_yes 0.02, while Llama 4 Maverick was the highest panel probability at p_yes 0.42. The panel’s low consensus overturned the crowd price.
- Outcome: NO.
- Crowd price: p_yes 0.69 (Polymarket frozen price).
- Panel: 13 models, mean p_yes 0.14, median p_yes 0.08, all 13 called it.
- Lowest model p_yes: Gemini 2.5 Pro 0.02; highest: Llama 4 Maverick 0.42.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Llama 4 Maverick42%
- Mistral Large30%
- Claude Sonnet 4.525%
- Claude Opus 4.115%
- DeepSeek V312%
- Qwen3 235B12%
- GPT-5 Mini8%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash8%
- Kimi K28%
- Grok 4.57%
- GPT-56%
- DeepSeek R13%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%