MEDICINE · Settled
Will the U.S. weekly flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 34 be greater than 0.1?
The answer: NO
The panel of 13 models averaged 16% YES; 13 of 13 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 50%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel predicted NO on US flu hospitalisations; low‑probability models beat the crowd
The event resolved NO. The frozen crowd price was 50% for YES, while the 13-model panel mean was 16% and median 12%, so the panel sat strongly against the crowd. Gemini 2.5 Pro made the best call, assigning 2% and earning the top Brier score 0. High-probability panel forecasts missed most, with Claude Sonnet 4.5 at 42% producing the largest Brier loss.
- Outcome: NO on weekly US flu hospitalisation rate in Week 34.
- Crowd (Polymarket frozen price) was 50% on YES.
- Panel: 13 models, mean p_yes 16%, median 12%, lowest 2%, highest 42%.
- Best Brier: Gemini 2.5 Pro, p_yes 2%, Brier 0.
- Worst Brier: Claude Sonnet 4.5, p_yes 42%, Brier 0.176.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Claude Sonnet 4.542%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash35%
- Llama 4 Maverick25%
- Claude Opus 4.118%
- Mistral Large18%
- Qwen3 235B15%
- DeepSeek V312%
- Kimi K212%
- Grok 4.511%
- DeepSeek R110%
- GPT-58%
- GPT-5 Mini5%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%