MEDICINE · Settled
Will the U.S. weekly flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 34 be exactly 0.1?
The answer: YES
The panel of 14 models averaged 23% YES; 3 of 14 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 50%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Outcome YES while panel leaned NO: crowd 50%, panel mean 23%, three models called it
The question resolved YES. The crowd (Polymarket frozen price) was 50% and called it. The panel mean was 23%, median 12%, and 3 of 14 models called YES. DeepSeek R1 (78%), Gemini 2.5 Pro (65%) and Perplexity Sonar (52%) were the positive callers; most models assigned low probabilities.
- Outcome: YES.
- The crowd p_yes was 50% and called it.
- Panel mean p_yes was 23%, median 12%, only 3 of 14 models called YES.
- Top callers: DeepSeek R1 78%, Gemini 2.5 Pro 65%, Perplexity Sonar 52%.
- Many models assigned low probabilities, lowest were DeepSeek V3 and Llama 4 Maverick at 2%.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek R178%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro65%
- Perplexity Sonar52%
- GPT-533%
- Grok 4.518%
- Mistral Large15%
- Claude Opus 4.112%
- Qwen3 235B12%
- Claude Sonnet 4.58%
- Kimi K28%
- GPT-5 Mini7%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash7%
- DeepSeek V32%
- Llama 4 Maverick2%