MEDICINE · Settled
Will the U.S. weekly flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 34 be less than 0.1?
The answer: NO
The panel of 13 models averaged 69% YES; 3 of 13 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 50%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Outcome NO; panel leaned YES (69%), crowd was split at 50%
The question resolved NO. The panel mean sat at 69%, with a median of 82%, favouring YES; the crowd price was 50%. Only 3 of 13 models called the outcome correctly. Gemini 2.5 Pro made the best call with 4% on YES, while several models strongly favoured YES, the largest at 92%.
- Outcome: NO.
- Panel mean_p_yes: 69%, median_p_yes: 82%.
- The crowd (Polymarket frozen price) was 50% YES.
- 3 of 13 panel models called it correctly.
- Range of panel forecasts: lowest 4% YES, highest 92% YES.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Mistral Large92%
- GPT-5 Mini90%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash88%
- GPT-586%
- Grok 4.586%
- DeepSeek V385%
- Claude Sonnet 4.582%
- Claude Opus 4.182%
- Kimi K282%
- Llama 4 Maverick75%
- Qwen3 235B35%
- DeepSeek R115%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro4%