SCIENCE · Settled
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
The answer: NO
The panel of 16 models averaged 41% YES; 11 of 16 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 25%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
NO: outcome; panel leaned higher than the crowd, best call 0.02, worst 0.98
The outcome was NO. The panel mean was 0.41, above the crowd price of 0.25; 11 of 16 models called it. Qwen3 235B made the best call at 0.02 (brier 0). Gemini 2.5 Pro was the worst at 0.98 (brier 0.96).
- Outcome: NO.
- Panel mean_p_yes 0.41 versus the crowd p_yes 0.25.
- 11 of 16 models called it.
- Forecasts ranged from lowest_p_yes 0.02 to highest_p_yes 0.98.
- Best brier 0 (Qwen3 235B); worst brier 0.96 (Gemini 2.5 Pro).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro98%
- DeepSeek V393%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash78%
- Perplexity Sonar58%
- Llama 4 Maverick58%
- Claude Sonnet 4.545%
- Kimi K245%
- Claude Opus 4.142%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro42%
- Mistral Large35%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search18%
- Grok 4.516%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search12%
- GPT-59%
- GPT-5 Mini6%
- Qwen3 235B2%