AI · Settled
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026?
The answer: YES
The panel of 13 models averaged 15% YES; 1 of 13 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 44%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel mostly expected NO, but outcome was YES and one model had called it
The market resolved YES on 3 September 2026. The panel mean sat at 15%, well below the crowd price of 44%. Only one panel model, Mistral Large, predicted YES, at 68%. Most panel models were very low, with a median of 7% and several at 2%, which missed the realised outcome.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-03.
- Panel mean p(YES) 15%, median 7%, highest 68%, lowest 2%.
- Crowd (Polymarket frozen price) p(YES) 44%, did not call it.
- Only 1 of 13 panel models called YES: Mistral Large at 68%.
- Multiple models gave 2% and therefore were far from the realised YES.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Mistral Large68%
- DeepSeek V345%
- Llama 4 Maverick25%
- Qwen3 235B15%
- Claude Sonnet 4.515%
- Grok 4.59%
- GPT-57%
- GPT-5 Mini6%
- Claude Opus 4.12%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash2%
- DeepSeek R12%
- Kimi K22%