CULTURE · Settled
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 19% YES; 3 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 62%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Outcome YES; crowd 62% called it, panel mean 19% mostly expected NO
The question resolved YES. The crowd, a Polymarket price frozen when asked, was 62% YES. The panel of 20 models had mean YES 19% and median 12%, with 3 models calling YES. Best-scoring models favoured YES at 66% and 57%, most models strongly favoured NO.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-10-02 06:15:01.
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 62% YES.
- Panel: 20 models, mean 19% YES, median 12% YES, 3 models called YES.
- Range: lowest 2% YES, highest 66% YES.
- Top two models were GPT-5 + web search (66%) and Perplexity Sonar Pro (57%).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- GPT-5 + web search66%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro57%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro50%
- Perplexity Sonar47%
- Mistral Large28%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search25%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search22%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search20%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search17%
- Llama 4 Maverick12%
- DeepSeek V312%
- Claude Sonnet 4.58%
- Grok 4.57%
- DeepSeek R13%
- Claude Opus 4.13%
- GPT-5 Mini3%
- Kimi K22%
- Qwen3 235B2%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash2%
- GPT-52%