CULTURE · Settled
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 27% YES; 14 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 64%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel leaned NO, crowd leaned YES; panel mean 27% vs Polymarket 64%
The outcome was NO. The panel of 20 models had a mean 27% and median 15%, and 14 models correctly called NO. The crowd, the Polymarket price frozen when asked, was 64% in favour of YES. Best-scoring models gave YES only 2%, worst-scoring model gave YES 85%, producing the largest Brier loss.
- Outcome: NO.
- Panel mean: 27%, median: 15%, 14 of 20 models called NO.
- Crowd (Polymarket price frozen): 64% YES.
- Range of panel forecasts: low 2% YES, high 85% YES, an 83-point spread.
- Top scorers posted near-zero Briers; highest YES forecasts produced the largest Brier errors.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Flash85%
- Perplexity Sonar78%
- GPT-5 + web search66%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search63%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search63%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro60%
- Mistral Large25%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search22%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search22%
- Qwen3 235B18%
- Llama 4 Maverick12%
- Kimi K28%
- Grok 4.57%
- DeepSeek V36%
- Claude Sonnet 4.53%
- Claude Opus 4.13%
- GPT-52%
- GPT-5 Mini2%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%
- DeepSeek R12%