CULTURE · Settled
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
The answer: YES
The panel of 13 models averaged 11% YES; 1 of 13 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 87%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Crowd was right, panel mostly pessimistic: one model outlier predicted the win
The outcome was YES. The crowd set the price at 87% and called it, while the panel mean sat at 11% and only 1 of 13 models called YES. Gemini 2.5 Pro made the strongest call at 68%, the best panel prediction. Most panel models assigned very low probabilities, with many near 2% to 10%, and so missed the realised outcome.
- Outcome: YES; crowd price p_yes was 87%.
- Panel: 13 models, mean p_yes 11%, median 8%, only 1 model called YES.
- Best panel call: Gemini 2.5 Pro at 68%.
- Many models gave very low probabilities: lowest 2%, several at 2%, 8%.
- Baseline Copy Control matched the crowd at 87% and also called it.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro68%
- Qwen3 235B15%
- DeepSeek V312%
- Mistral Large10%
- Claude Sonnet 4.58%
- DeepSeek R18%
- Kimi K28%
- Grok 4.57%
- GPT-5 Mini4%
- GPT-52%
- Claude Opus 4.12%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash2%
- Llama 4 Maverick2%