CRYPTO · Settled
Will the price of Bitcoin be above ,000 on August 31?
The answer: NO
The panel of 13 models averaged 36% YES; 12 of 13 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 23%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Bitcoin below ,000: panel averaged 36% YES, crowd priced YES at 23%
The outcome was NO. The panel averaged 36% YES while the crowd (Polymarket price) was 23% YES, and 12 of 13 models called the outcome. Gemini 2.5 Flash made the best call at 2% YES and scored a Brier of 0. Models that missed tended to assign much higher YES probabilities, up to 50%.
- Outcome: NO on 2026-08-31 17:00:02.
- Panel mean_p_yes 36%, median_p_yes 42%, 12 of 13 models called it.
- Crowd p_yes 23% (Polymarket price frozen when asked).
- Best call: Gemini 2.5 Flash p_yes 2%, Brier 0.
- Highest panel probability was Claude Sonnet 4.5 at 50%, which missed.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Claude Sonnet 4.550%
- Kimi K248%
- Grok 4.547%
- Mistral Large45%
- GPT-543%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro43%
- Claude Opus 4.142%
- DeepSeek R142%
- Llama 4 Maverick42%
- DeepSeek V335%
- Qwen3 235B25%
- GPT-5 Mini7%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash2%