WORLD · Settled
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 14% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 13%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel centred near the crowd, low-probability NOs dominated and the outcome was NO
The market (Polymarket price frozen at 0.13) resolved NO. The 20-model panel mean was 0.14 and the median 0.12, very close to the crowd. GPT-5 Mini made the best call, assigning 3% to YES and scoring the lowest Brier 0.001. The panel's highest forecast was 32% (Gemini 2.5 Pro), which was the strongest YES and missed the outcome.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-09-22 06:15:01, crowd price frozen at 0.13.
- Panel: 20 models, all called it, mean YES 0.14, median YES 0.12.
- Lowest model YES 0.03 (GPT-5 Mini), Brier 0.001, nearest to the NO outcome.
- Highest model YES 0.32 (Gemini 2.5 Pro), the strongest YES and the largest miss.
- Spread between highest and lowest forecasts 0.29, below the 0.30 threshold for formal disagreement.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro32%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search28%
- DeepSeek V325%
- Llama 4 Maverick25%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search18%
- DeepSeek R118%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search15%
- Perplexity Sonar14%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search13%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro12%
- Mistral Large12%
- Claude Sonnet 4.512%
- GPT-5 + web search10%
- Grok 4.59%
- GPT-59%
- Kimi K28%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash8%
- Claude Opus 4.18%
- Qwen3 235B5%
- GPT-5 Mini3%