WORLD · Settled
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
The answer: NO
The panel of 13 models averaged 88% YES; 0 of 13 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 98%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel favoured YES but every model and the crowd missed: outcome NO
The question resolved NO. The crowd was at 98% YES, and the 13-model panel mean was 88% YES, median 92% YES, with no models calling NO. The least extreme panel call was Qwen3 235B at 65% YES, the most extreme were GPT-5 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at 98% YES. All models therefore erred in the same direction as the frozen crowd price.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-08-31 20:30:01.
- The crowd (Polymarket price frozen when asked) was 98% YES.
- Panel: 13 models, mean 88% YES, median 92% YES, none called NO.
- Lowest model probability: Qwen3 235B at 65% YES; highest: GPT-5 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at 98% YES.
- Every model and the crowd voted YES, so all were wrong on the final resolution.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- GPT-598%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro98%
- Claude Opus 4.196%
- GPT-5 Mini95%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash95%
- DeepSeek R195%
- Claude Sonnet 4.592%
- Kimi K289%
- Mistral Large88%
- DeepSeek V380%
- Llama 4 Maverick80%
- Grok 4.578%
- Qwen3 235B65%