Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Arsenal won, panel leaned slightly under the crowd and Gemini 2.5 Flash was best

Outcome: YES. The crowd (Polymarket frozen price) was 64%, the panel mean sat at 52% with 7 of 13 models calling YES. Gemini 2.5 Flash made the strongest call at 65% and scored best on Brier. Misses tended to give much lower probabilities, with GPT-5 at 41% performing worst.

• Outcome resolved YES on 2026-08-31.
• The crowd price was 64%, panel mean was 52%, median 52%.
• 7 of 13 panel models called YES; lowest model probability was 41%, highest 65%.
• Best Brier score: Gemini 2.5 Flash 0.123 at 65%.
• Worst Brier score among models: GPT-5 0.348 at 41%.