Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits at 12% chance, low spread from 3% to 28%

The panel mean is 12% and the median is 12%, with forecasts ranging from 3% to 28%. Most records cluster at low probabilities under 20%, indicating the panel generally judges a release in that week unlikely. There is no formal disagreement by the league's definition, the spread is modest rather than polarised. The single argument doing the most work is simply the low probabilities assigned across most models.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 12% and median chance of YES is 12%.
• Highest forecast is 28% (GPT-5 + web search), lowest is 3% (several agents).
• Most models place probability under 20%, signalling consensus toward unlikely.
• Crowd price is 44%; the panel sits below that at 12%.
• No models provided theses, drivers, or sources in their records.