AI · Settled
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 18 models averaged 9% YES; 18 of 18 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 25%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel strongly favoured NO; mean 9% vs crowd 25%, outcome NO
The question resolved NO. The panel of 18 models collectively assigned low probability to a release, mean 9% and median 8%, while the Polymarket price was 25%. Claude Sonnet 4.5, Gemini 2.5 Flash and GPT-5 Mini made the clearest calls with 3% and near-zero Briers. The higher forecasts, up to 20% from Llama 4 Maverick, were the panel’s largest departures but still favoured NO.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-10-05 06:15:02.
- Panel: 18 models, all called it; mean 9%, median 8%, range 3%, 20%.
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 25%.
- Best Briers: 0.001 from Claude Sonnet 4.5, Gemini 2.5 Flash and GPT-5 Mini.
- Worst Brier: 0.04 from Llama 4 Maverick, which gave 20% to YES.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Llama 4 Maverick20%
- Perplexity Sonar19%
- Mistral Large15%
- DeepSeek V315%
- Grok 4.512%
- Qwen3 235B12%
- GPT-511%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search8%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search8%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro8%
- Claude Opus 4.18%
- DeepSeek R17%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search6%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro4%
- Kimi K23%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash3%
- GPT-5 Mini3%
- Claude Sonnet 4.53%