Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans No, mean 43% with wide split 15%, 90%

The panel mean is 43%, median 38%, with forecasts ranging from 15% to 90%. Most records cluster in the 30, 50% range and offer no stated theses or drivers. The panel sits well below the crowd price of 79%. The split is large because a few agents assign very high probability while a few assign very low probability, but individual records do not provide cited arguments.

• Panel mean 43% and median 38%.
• Forecasts span 15% (Gemini 2.5 Pro) to 90% (Gemini 2.5 Flash).
• Five models explicitly lean Yes, panel-wide majority do not.
• Crowd price frozen at 79%, panel sits well below that.
• Most records contain no theses, drivers, uncertainty text, or sources.