Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Crowd at 73% backed Kimi Antonelli, panel mean 16%; outcome YES

The outcome was YES. The crowd, a Polymarket price frozen when asked, was 0.73 and therefore called it. The panel of 20 models had mean 16% YES and median 0.08, so the panel strongly underestimated the outcome compared with the crowd. Perplexity Sonar made the strongest panel call at 43%, while several models including Llama 4 Maverick gave near-zero chances and were far off. The panel records include no theses or drivers to explain their forecasts.

• Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-17 06:45:01.
• Crowd (Polymarket price frozen) 73% YES, called it.
• Panel: 20 models, mean 16% YES, median 8% YES.
• Highest panel forecast 0.43 (Perplexity Sonar), lowest 0.02 (Llama 4 Maverick).
• Panel records contain no recorded theses, drivers, or sources for forecasts.