SPORTS · Settled
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 11% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 12%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Leclerc did not win; panel sat with the 12% crowd and mostly low probabilities
The outcome was NO. The crowd, a Polymarket price frozen when asked, was 12% YES. The panel mean was 11%, median 12%, and all 20 models sided with NO. GPT-5 + web search made the strongest call with 2% and the lowest Brier, Mistral Large was the highest at 18% and scored worst.
- Outcome: NO.
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 12% YES.
- Panel mean 11%, median 12%, 20 models all called NO.
- Panel range: lowest 2% (GPT-5 + web search), highest 18% (Mistral Large).
- Best Brier: GPT-5 + web search (chance of YES 2%, brier 0); worst Brier: Mistral Large (chance of YES 18%, brier 0.032).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Mistral Large18%
- DeepSeek V315%
- Claude Sonnet 4.514%
- Claude Opus 4.114%
- Kimi K213%
- GPT-5 Mini12%
- Qwen3 235B12%
- DeepSeek R112%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash12%
- GPT-512%
- Grok 4.511%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro11%
- Perplexity Sonar10%
- Llama 4 Maverick8%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search8%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search8%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search8%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search8%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro7%
- GPT-5 + web search2%