Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits at 35%, wide split driven by a few very high and many low forecasts

The panel mean is 35% and the forecasts span from 2% to 85%, median 23%. Most records place probability below 50%, and only 5 models lean Yes. The panel is split between a small high-forecast group and many low-forecast models; the records do not provide internal theses or drivers to explain those probabilities. The largest factor shaping the panel is the numeric divergence between a few high probabilities and a larger set of low probabilities.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 35%.
• Panel median chance of YES is 23%.
• Highest forecast is 85%, lowest is 2%, spread 83 points.
• Only 5 models are recorded as leaning Yes.
• Records generally do not include theses, drivers, or sources.