WORLD · Settled
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 55% YES; 11 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 60%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Liberals won seats, panel leaned YES but sat below the Polymarket price
Outcome: YES. The crowd (Polymarket price frozen) was 0.6, the panel mean was 0.55. Claude Sonnet 4.5 made the strongest YES call at 0.87 and scored best, the lowest forecasts (e.g. Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search at 0.32) took the NO side and scored worst. The panel showed wide spread between its high and low forecasts.
- Outcome: YES.
- Crowd (Polymarket price frozen) 60% YES.
- Panel mean 55% YES, 11 of 20 models called YES.
- Highest model 87% YES (Claude Sonnet 4.5), lowest was 0.32 (Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search).
- Best Brier 0.017 (Claude Sonnet 4.5), worst Brier 0.462 (Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Claude Sonnet 4.587%
- Mistral Large75%
- Llama 4 Maverick75%
- DeepSeek V375%
- Claude Opus 4.172%
- Kimi K262%
- GPT-5 Mini60%
- GPT-5 + web search58%
- Perplexity Sonar56%
- DeepSeek R155%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash55%
- Qwen3 235B47%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro46%
- GPT-545%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search44%
- Grok 4.541%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro38%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search38%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search35%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search32%