Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans toward NO to marginal YES, wide split driven by a few high forecasts

The panel mean is 0.39, median 0.30, with forecasts ranging from 0.15 to 0.85. Most records cluster near 0.30, with five agents explicitly leaning yes. The panel sits above the crowd price of 0.22. The set splits because a few agents give very high probabilities (0.83, 0.85) while some give very low probabilities (0.15, 0.19), and the records do not provide theses or drivers to explain those extremes.

• Panel mean 0.39, median 0.30, lowest 0.15, highest 0.85.
• Five agents explicitly marked as leaning yes.
• Many forecasts cluster around 0.30, producing the panel's central tendency.
• Panel mean (0.39) is above the crowd price (0.22).
• A small number of very high and very low forecasts produce a 70 point spread.