Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits around 40%, large split driven by a few 88% forecasts and some 18% forecasts

The panel mean is 40%, the median is 30%, the lowest is 18% and the highest is 88%. Most records cluster in the mid 20s to high 30s, and five models explicitly lean yes. The panel is split because three agents assign very high probability, while two assign very low probability. The single argument doing the most work is the cluster of 88% forecasts from three agents.

• Panel mean 40%
• Panel median 30%
• Highest forecasts 88% from three agents
• Lowest forecasts 18% from two agents
• Five models marked as leaning yes