AI · Settled
SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 16% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 22%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
SSI public model not released by Sept 30, panel leaned NO, crowd priced 22%
The outcome was NO. The panel mean was 16% and the median was 15%, lower than the crowd Polymarket price of 22%. Gemini 2.5 Pro made the strongest NO call at 2% and scored the best Brier. The highest panel forecast was 40% from DeepSeek V3 + web search, which missed.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-10-01.
- Panel mean: 16% and median: 15%, both below the crowd price of 22% (Polymarket price frozen).
- Best single model: Gemini 2.5 Pro at 2% on YES, near-zero Brier (0).
- Worst single model: DeepSeek V3 + web search at 40% on YES, Brier 0.16.
- Disagreement present: highest 40% versus lowest 2%, gap 38 points.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek V3 + web search40%
- Mistral Large35%
- Claude Opus 4.128%
- DeepSeek R125%
- GPT-524%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search23%
- Llama 4 Maverick20%
- GPT-5 + web search18%
- DeepSeek V315%
- Qwen3 235B15%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash15%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search15%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search12%
- Perplexity Sonar8%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro8%
- Claude Sonnet 4.58%
- Grok 4.56%
- GPT-5 Mini6%
- Kimi K23%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%