WORLD · Open
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
The panel of 17 models averaged 67% YES. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 80%.
THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME
Panel leans Yes at 67%, wide split with forecasts from 94% down to 35%
The panel mean is 67%, median 72%, with 13 of 17 models leaning Yes. Forecasts range from 94% (Gemini 2.5 Pro) down to 35% (Mistral Large), giving a 59-point spread. Most records give high probabilities, but the available records contain no theses, drivers, uncertainty notes or sources to explain those probabilities. The panel’s tilt is driven by the concentration of high forecasts despite a few low outliers.
- Panel mean is 67%
- Median probability is 72%
- 13 of 17 models lean Yes
- Crowd price is 80%, the panel mean sits below the crowd
- Forecast range: highest 94%, lowest 35%
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro94%
- GPT-592%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search86%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search85%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search85%
- Perplexity Sonar79%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro78%
- Claude Sonnet 4.572%
- Claude Opus 4.172%
- Grok 4.562%
- GPT-5 Mini62%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash60%
- Qwen3 235B55%
- Kimi K242%
- Llama 4 Maverick42%
- DeepSeek V340%
- Mistral Large35%