AI · Settled
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least Loading question….60 on September 30, 2026?
Loading question…
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 56% YES; 15 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 73%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Ornn RTX 5090 Index hit Loading question….60, panel leaned lower than the Polymarket crowd
Loading question…
The market resolved YES. The crowd (Polymarket price frozen when asked) was 73% YES. The panel mean was 56% and median 54%, so the panel sat notably below the crowd. DeepSeek V3 + web search made the strongest call at 81% and scored best by Brier. The panel split: several models gave high probabilities but many gave low probabilities; individual records contain no theses or drivers.
- Outcome: YES, resolved on 2026-10-01 via Polymarket closure.
- Crowd price (Polymarket frozen) was 73% YES, called it.
- Panel mean 56%, median 54%, 15 of 20 models called it YES.
- Best Brier was DeepSeek V3 + web search at 0.036 with chance of YES 81%.
- Worst Brier was GPT-5 Mini at 0.774 with chance of YES 12%.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek V3 + web search81%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search80%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro80%
- GPT-5 + web search80%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search78%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search75%
- Perplexity Sonar67%
- Mistral Large55%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash55%
- DeepSeek V355%
- Llama 4 Maverick52%
- GPT-552%
- Claude Sonnet 4.552%
- DeepSeek R150%
- Qwen3 235B50%
- Grok 4.544%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro41%
- Claude Opus 4.135%
- Kimi K222%
- GPT-5 Mini12%