AI · Settled
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 20% YES; 18 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 16%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel leaned NO, mean 20% vs Polymarket crowd 16%, big spread among models
The resolved outcome was NO. The panel mean was 20%, median 13%, compared with the Polymarket price (the crowd) at 16%: the brief compares the panel mean with the crowd. Gemini 2.5 Pro made the best call at 2%, producing a near-zero Brier. The largest misses were high-probability forecasts such as DeepSeek V3 and Gemini 2.5 Flash; the records contain no theses or drivers explaining those calls.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-10-01 08:15:01.
- Panel: mean 20%, median 13%, 18 of 20 models called it.
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 16%.
- Best Brier: Gemini 2.5 Pro at 2% gave a near-zero Brier.
- Disagreement: forecasts ranged from 2% up to 68% (wide spread).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek V368%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash65%
- Mistral Large35%
- Qwen3 235B32%
- Llama 4 Maverick25%
- Perplexity Sonar21%
- DeepSeek R120%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search16%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search14%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search14%
- Kimi K212%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search12%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro12%
- GPT-5 Mini12%
- GPT-5 + web search12%
- GPT-512%
- Grok 4.511%
- Claude Opus 4.18%
- Claude Sonnet 4.53%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%