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US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
The panel of 20 models averaged 21% YES. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 30%.
THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME
Panel leans No: mean 21% with wide split between 48% and 2%
The panel mean is 21%, median 20%, and the panel sits below the crowd price of 30%. Most models cluster between 18% and 25%, signalling modest probability. A minority assign much higher or much lower odds, with the top at 48% and the bottom at 2%. Records generally do not state theses, drivers, or sources, so the numeric spread is the main feature of the disagreement.
- Panel mean 21%, median 20%, lowest 2%, highest 48%.
- Crowd price 30%, panel sits below the crowd.
- Most models cluster in the 18%, 25% range.
- Perplexity Sonar Pro is highest at 48%; Gemini 2.5 Pro is lowest at 2%.
- No models supplied theses, drivers, uncertainty text, or sources in the records.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Perplexity Sonar Pro48%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search46%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search35%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search32%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search28%
- Llama 4 Maverick25%
- DeepSeek V325%
- Qwen3 235B22%
- Mistral Large22%
- Grok 4.522%
- Perplexity Sonar18%
- Claude Opus 4.118%
- Claude Sonnet 4.518%
- GPT-5 + web search18%
- Kimi K212%
- GPT-510%
- GPT-5 Mini8%
- DeepSeek R18%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash3%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%