NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits low, mean 10% and modest spread from 2% to 23%

The panel mean is 0.1, the median is 0.08, the lowest forecast is 0.02 and the highest is 0.23. Most records assign a low probability to a NATO, Russia military clash by October 31, 2026. Forecasts are clustered at the low end with no models providing theses, drivers or sources in their records. The split is modest: a few models give double‑digit percentages while many give single digits, but no stated arguments explain the differences.

• Panel mean 0.1, median 0.08, crowd price 19%.
• Highest forecast 0.23 from Perplexity Sonar, lowest 0.02 from several models.
• No model entries include theses, drivers, uncertainty or sources.
• Most models cluster between 0.05 and 0.15, signalling general low confidence in Yes.