Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) in August?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

WTI did not hit in August; panel averaged 20% while the crowd was 1%

The outcome was NO. The panel of 12 models unanimously assigned some chance, with mean 20% and median 17%, well above the crowd price of 1%. Grok 4.5 made the best call, assigning 6% and recording the lowest Brier 0.004. The panel's largest misses were models that assigned much higher probabilities, the highest being Llama 4 Maverick at 42%.

• Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-09-01 04:00:01.
• The crowd price was 1%, frozen when asked.
• Panel: 12 models, mean 20%, median 17%, lowest 6%, highest 42%.
• Best Brier: Grok 4.5, p_yes 6%, Brier 0.004.
• Worst Brier: Llama 4 Maverick, p_yes 42%, Brier 0.176.