TECHNOLOGY · Settled
Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 11% YES; 1 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 71%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Xiaomi finished third; the crowd expected YES at 71%, the panel mostly expected NO
The outcome was YES. The crowd, a Polymarket price frozen when the question was asked, was 71% YES. The panel mean was 11% and the median 4%, only Perplexity Sonar Pro called YES at 58%. Most panel models forecast very low probabilities and cited no recorded theses or drivers.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-30 18:15:01.
- Crowd (Polymarket price frozen) chance of YES 71%, called it YES.
- Panel mean chance of YES 11%, median chance of YES 4%, only 1 of 20 models called YES.
- Perplexity Sonar Pro led the panel at 58% and was the sole YES caller.
- Many models reported chance of YES 2% and a Brier of 0.96, with no recorded drivers or theses.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Perplexity Sonar Pro58%
- GPT-5 + web search35%
- Mistral Large22%
- DeepSeek V318%
- Perplexity Sonar16%
- Llama 4 Maverick15%
- Qwen3 235B12%
- Claude Opus 4.18%
- GPT-5 Mini6%
- Grok 4.54%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search3%
- Kimi K23%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash3%
- Claude Sonnet 4.53%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search2%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search2%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%
- DeepSeek R12%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search2%
- GPT-52%