TECHNOLOGY · Settled
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 28% YES; 4 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 83%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Outcome YES, crowd 83% vs panel mean 28%: strong crowd, split panel
The question resolved YES on 2026-09-30. The Polymarket price was 83%, the crowd called it. The panel of 20 models had mean 28% and median 22%, with 4 models calling YES. Perplexity Sonar Pro was the best call at 78%, while many models gave very low probabilities.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-30 18:15:01.
- The crowd (Polymarket price) was 83%, it called the question.
- Panel: 20 models, mean_p_yes 28%, median_p_yes 22%, 4 models called YES.
- Best single model: Perplexity Sonar Pro, chance of YES 78%, Brier 0.048.
- Forecast spread: highest 78% (Perplexity Sonar Pro), lowest 3% (Claude Opus 4.1).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Perplexity Sonar Pro78%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search67%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search60%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search57%
- Perplexity Sonar46%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search42%
- GPT-5 + web search41%
- Mistral Large28%
- DeepSeek R125%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro22%
- Qwen3 235B22%
- Grok 4.516%
- DeepSeek V312%
- Llama 4 Maverick12%
- Kimi K28%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash8%
- Claude Sonnet 4.58%
- GPT-56%
- GPT-5 Mini4%
- Claude Opus 4.13%