Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Panel doubted Alibaba, mean 37% vs crowd 81%: actual outcome NO

The question resolved NO. The panel mean was 37%, median 27%, with 14 of 20 models calling it; the crowd was at 81% (Polymarket price frozen). DeepSeek V3 (15%) and Kimi K2 (15%) made the best calls, producing the lowest Briers at 0.023 by strongly favouring NO. The largest misses were Perplexity Sonar Pro and Perplexity Sonar, which favoured YES (80% and 79%) and recorded the highest Briers. Models diverged widely, from 15% to 80% on YES.

• Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-09-30 18:15:02.
• Panel mean_p_yes 37%, median_p_yes 27%, 14 of 20 models called it.
• Crowd (Polymarket price frozen) chance of YES 81%, it did not call it.
• Best Briers 0.023 from DeepSeek V3 and Kimi K2, both at 15% YES.
• Worst Brier 0.64 from Perplexity Sonar Pro, at 80% YES.