Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans No: mean 16%, spread 2%, 39% shows a notable split

The panel mean is 16% and the median is 14%, with individual forecasts ranging from 2% to 39%. Most models assign a low probability to an OpenAI consumer hardware launch by 31 October 2026. The split is driven by a few comparatively high forecasts from Perplexity Sonar and Perplexity Sonar Pro versus several very low forecasts such as Gemini 2.5 Pro. Most records do not state theses or drivers, so the single argument doing the most work is simply the numeric clustering toward low probabilities.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 16%, median 14%
• Highest chance of YES 39% (Perplexity Sonar), lowest 2% (Gemini 2.5 Pro)
• Crowd price is 25%, the panel mean sits below it
• Majority of models give chance of YES below 25%
• Most records contain no stated theses, drivers, or sources