Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans NO, wide split driven by a few high forecasts

The panel mean is 38%, median 30%, with forecasts ranging from 9% to 76%. Most records give low to moderate chances; a minority give high chances. The crowd price sits at 65%, higher than the panel mean. The largest influence is the small set of models assigning very high probability, though those models provided no supporting theses in their records.

• Panel mean chance of YES 38%
• Panel median chance of YES 30%
• Crowd price chance of YES 65%, above the panel mean
• 7 of 20 models lean Yes
• Forecast range: highest 76%, lowest 9%