Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans yes at 54%, split from 34% to 74%, panel 20 points above crowd

The panel mean is 54% and the median is 58%, with forecasts ranging from 34% to 74%. Twelve of 20 models lean yes, so most records tilt toward no change. The panel sits 20 percentage points above the crowd price of 34%. Models diverge sharply, but individual records generally do not provide theses or drivers explaining their probabilities.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 54%, median 58%, lowest 34%, highest 74%.
• Twelve of 20 models explicitly lean yes.
• Crowd price is 34%; panel sits 20 percentage points higher.
• Most model records contain no stated theses, drivers, or sources.
• Forecasts cluster around the mid-50s but include both high and low outliers.