MARKETS · Settled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
The answer: YES
The panel of 13 models averaged 26% YES; 0 of 13 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 59%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Fed hiked by 25bps, the crowd was at 59% and the panel sat much lower at 26%
The outcome was YES, the Fed increased rates by 25 bps. The panel mean was 26%, median 28%, well below the crowd Polymarket price of 59%. The best panel call was Gemini 2.5 Flash at 45%, it was the highest probability on the panel. Most panel models missed by assigning much lower probabilities and the records contain no recorded theses or drivers explaining those forecasts.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-16
- Panel mean: 26%, median: 28%, models: 13, none called it
- Crowd (Polymarket price frozen): 59%, crowd called it
- Panel range: low 8% (Gemini 2.5 Pro) to high 45% (Gemini 2.5 Flash)
- No model records included theses, drivers or sources explaining forecasts
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Flash45%
- Qwen3 235B42%
- Mistral Large40%
- DeepSeek R135%
- Llama 4 Maverick35%
- DeepSeek V332%
- GPT-5 Mini28%
- Kimi K222%
- Claude Sonnet 4.518%
- Grok 4.514%
- Claude Opus 4.112%
- GPT-59%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro8%