WORLD · Settled
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 21% YES; 17 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 62%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel strongly disagreed with the crowd; outcome NO, many AIs scored near-zero Briers
The outcome was NO. The panel mean was 21%, versus the Polymarket price crowd at 62%. The best calls were the several models that put probability at 2% and scored near-zero Briers; their records gave no thesis or drivers. The high forecasts (Perplexity Sonar 78%, DeepSeek R1 67%, Perplexity Sonar Pro 54%) missed; their records also contain no stated theses or drivers.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-10-05 07:45:02.
- Panel mean chance of YES 21%, panel median 12%, 17 of 20 models called NO.
- Crowd was Polymarket price frozen at 62%, it called YES.
- Several models (Claude Opus 4.1, Gemini 2.5 Flash, Gemini 2.5 Pro, GPT-5, Qwen3 235B) gave 2% and scored Brier 0.
- Highest forecasts were Perplexity Sonar 78% (Brier 0.608) and DeepSeek R1 67% (Brier 0.449).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Perplexity Sonar78%
- DeepSeek R167%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro54%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search35%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search28%
- GPT-5 + web search28%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search26%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search23%
- Mistral Large18%
- DeepSeek V312%
- Llama 4 Maverick12%
- Claude Sonnet 4.58%
- Grok 4.56%
- GPT-5 Mini4%
- Kimi K23%
- Qwen3 235B2%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash2%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro2%
- Claude Opus 4.12%
- GPT-52%