WORLD · Settled
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 35% YES; 13 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 70%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel leaned NO, crowd favoured YES; a split between web‑search and no‑web models
The outcome was NO. The crowd was at 0.7, the Polymarket price frozen when the question was asked. The panel of 20 models had mean 0.35 and median 0.17, 13 models called it. The best call was GPT-5 at 0.02, a very low probability that matched the NO outcome with near‑zero Brier. The biggest misses were the web‑search‑augmented models, led by Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search at 0.88.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-10-05 07:45:02.
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 0.7, it called YES.
- Panel: 20 models, mean 0.35, median 0.17, 13 models called NO.
- Best single forecast: GPT-5 at 0.02, near‑zero Brier.
- Worst single forecast: Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search at 0.88, largest Brier 0.774.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search88%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search80%
- Perplexity Sonar78%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search76%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search76%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro70%
- GPT-5 + web search68%
- Mistral Large30%
- Qwen3 235B20%
- Claude Opus 4.118%
- GPT-5 Mini16%
- DeepSeek V315%
- DeepSeek R115%
- Grok 4.511%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash8%
- Kimi K28%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro8%
- Claude Sonnet 4.58%
- Llama 4 Maverick7%
- GPT-52%