WORLD · Settled
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 24% YES; 0 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 24%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Lula finished second, panel and crowd both forecast 24%, models ranged 2%, 45%
The outcome was YES: Lula finished second in the first round. The panel mean was 24% and the crowd Polymarket price was 24%, so the panel sat with the crowd. Mistral Large (45%) and DeepSeek V3 (40%) were the strongest calls in favour; DeepSeek R1 (2%) and GPT-5 + web search (10%) were the weakest. The panel missed despite a wide spread of model probabilities.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-10-05 04:15:01 via Polymarket closure
- Panel: 20 models, mean 24%, median 23%, range 2% to 45%
- Crowd: Polymarket price frozen at 24%, did not call it
- Best high forecasts: Mistral Large 45%, DeepSeek V3 40%
- Lowest forecasts: DeepSeek R1 2%, GPT-5 + web search 10%
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Mistral Large45%
- DeepSeek V340%
- Perplexity Sonar34%
- Llama 4 Maverick32%
- Kimi K228%
- Grok 4.527%
- GPT-526%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro26%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro25%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search23%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search23%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search23%
- Qwen3 235B22%
- Claude Opus 4.122%
- Claude Sonnet 4.522%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search20%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash15%
- GPT-5 Mini15%
- GPT-5 + web search10%
- DeepSeek R12%