WORLD · Settled
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 57% YES; 12 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 74%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
AfD won in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern; panel leaned YES but trailed the Polymarket crowd
The outcome was YES. The crowd (Polymarket price frozen when asked) was 74% YES. The panel mean was 57% YES, median 65% YES, with 12 of 20 models calling YES. DeepSeek V3 + web search and Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search made the strongest YES calls and scored best by Brier; the low-side models, including Llama 4 Maverick, were strongly on NO.
- Outcome: YES.
- Crowd Polymarket price: 74% YES.
- Panel: mean 57% YES, median 65% YES, 12 of 20 called YES.
- Highest model forecast 88% (two models), lowest 15%, disagreement present.
- Best Brier 0.014, worst Brier 0.723.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek V3 + web search88%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search88%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search86%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search85%
- GPT-5 + web search83%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro78%
- Kimi K272%
- Perplexity Sonar72%
- GPT-570%
- Mistral Large65%
- DeepSeek R165%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro60%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash45%
- Claude Sonnet 4.542%
- Grok 4.538%
- Claude Opus 4.128%
- Qwen3 235B25%
- DeepSeek V325%
- GPT-5 Mini18%
- Llama 4 Maverick15%